Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.207421 27.795530 32.830452 38.736816 45.445543 52.798747 61.436809
2025-08-10 15.986817 21.876416 28.996916 38.111974 49.334375 62.560941 79.178726
2025-08-17 12.265676 18.680330 27.045628 38.477103 53.390830 71.875005 96.170412
2025-08-24 9.614627 16.132558 25.221234 38.353529 56.327261 79.525159 111.118313
2025-08-31 7.369170 13.616751 22.915189 37.075665 57.327335 84.431577 122.514769
2025-09-07 6.161509 12.386605 22.183051 37.768353 60.867063 92.687680 138.503300
2025-09-14 4.905032 10.796129 20.627862 36.986006 62.113157 97.727709 150.237627
2025-09-21 4.217187 10.040801 20.257216 37.898172 65.794574 106.244235 167.011016
2025-09-28 3.243239 8.524012 18.375227 36.160800 65.264458 108.592843 175.096710
2025-10-05 2.874360 8.129524 18.380813 37.483600 69.496984 118.029670 193.617172
2025-10-12 2.507756 7.654111 18.161000 38.369234 73.039877 126.537780 211.041396
2025-10-19 2.191403 7.216438 17.943341 39.210620 76.517857 135.043716 228.707070
2025-10-26 1.880949 6.753770 17.686404 40.093371 80.352415 144.632157 248.937690
2025-11-02 1.496562 5.988596 16.699067 39.538973 81.746745 150.531100 263.937602
2025-11-09 1.247616 5.510799 16.240057 39.921073 84.746137 159.066597 283.241472
2025-11-16 1.012098 4.982653 15.570105 39.794326 86.794413 166.101250 300.399074
2025-11-23 0.763346 4.296179 14.391105 38.478873 86.557196 169.313480 311.582944
2025-11-30 0.647186 4.029263 14.195270 39.191991 90.089468 178.920223 333.232593
2025-12-07 0.497246 3.547992 13.347026 38.386565 90.671306 183.516920 346.903633
2025-12-14 0.427101 3.371131 13.288652 39.325629 94.650136 194.068325 370.571315
2025-12-21 0.301447 2.839156 12.103898 37.536902 93.132443 194.966305 378.323457
2025-12-28 0.266469 2.759727 12.250007 38.898851 97.984748 207.242728 405.337568
2026-01-04 0.227529 2.629916 12.214050 39.810527 101.957947 218.071169 430.187355